Kenya Met Forecasts Above-Average October Rainfall Across 30+ Counties

The Kenya Meteorological Department forecast above-average rainfall across more than 30 counties in October 2026. Released Thursday, October 1, the forecast shows higher probabilities in coastal and eastern counties including Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera.

Parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir counties will also experience above-average rainfall. The forecast reflects the October transition into the October-November-December short rains season.

Central Kenya Expects Significant Precipitation
Above-average rainfall is expected across central highlands including Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi and Kiambu. Upper central counties like Murang'a, Kirinyaga, Embu and Tharaka-Nithi will receive above-average precipitation amounts.

Additional rainfall coverage extends through Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua and Nyeri counties. Partial coverage also includes parts of Laikipia and Nakuru in the central highlands region.

Western and Rift Valley Counties Face Near-Average Conditions
Near-average to above-average rainfall is expected in Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma and Busia. Western counties like Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Siaya and Vihiga will experience moderate precipitation levels.

Rift Valley counties including Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Nandi and Nyamira will see similar patterns. Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu and West Pokot also fall within this forecast band.

Seasonal Outlook Shows Widespread Above-Average Rainfall
Kenya Met issued an outlook for October-November-December 2026 forecasting above-average rainfall nationwide. The seasonal forecast covers 41 counties expecting above-average precipitation during the entire period.

Baringo through Wajir counties face higher rainfall probabilities during the three-month season. Much of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit counties will also experience above-average rainfall conditions.

Temperatures Expected to Remain Above Normal
Mean temperatures will remain warmer than average across Kenya during October 2026. Highlands experience coolest conditions ranging between 15°C and 20°C elevation-dependent.

Arid and semi-arid lowlands will be warmest, with temperatures exceeding 28°C regularly. The Intertropical Convergence Zone moving southward will drive increased temperatures nationwide.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook Confirms Warming Trend
Mean temperatures will remain above average throughout October-November-December 2026 nationwide. Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi and Lamu face particularly high warming probability probabilities.

Parts of Tana River, Taita Taveta and Garissa will also experience above-normal temperatures. This warming trend combines with rainfall to shape seasonal agricultural and water management conditions.