Sakaja Hints at Possible UDA Exit as ODM Defection Speculation Grows

Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja at an Event

Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja has sparked fresh speculation about his political future ahead of the 2027 General Election. He has hinted at joining ODM, although he has not formally announced plans to leave UDA.

Speaking at Jacaranda Grounds on Saturday, October 31, 2026, Sakaja asked residents about his next political destination. He appeared to invite the crowd to decide which party he should join.

“Roundi hii mnasemaje? Niende kwa chama gani? Wangapi wanasema niingie ODM?” Sakaja asked. The crowd reportedly responded by urging him to join ODM.

His remarks came as ODM prepared its Mwezi wa Baba activities. The developments carry added significance as the party navigates the political period following Raila Odinga's death.

However, Sakaja has not confirmed any departure from President William Ruto's UDA. His political future therefore remains uncertain as Nairobi's 2027 gubernatorial contest approaches.

UDA faces further political realignments

Sakaja's remarks come amid growing departures and political disagreements within UDA. Several prominent leaders have already distanced themselves from the ruling party.

Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro announced his departure from UDA in July 2026. Former Gender Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa also quit the party following political frustrations and disagreements.

Her disagreements reportedly involved her ambitions for the Kilifi gubernatorial seat. Other leaders have also distanced themselves from UDA or its political ticket.

They include Murang'a Governor Irungu Kang'ata, Nyandarua Governor Kiarie Badilisha and Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba.

Sakaja's situation, however, presents a different political calculation. He has not publicly declared a fallout with President Ruto.

His possible departure could therefore reflect electoral strategy rather than an outright confrontation with State House. He may be assessing which political platform offers stronger prospects of retaining City Hall.

Babu Owino and Aladwa complicate ODM calculations

Joining ODM would not automatically guarantee Sakaja the party's Nairobi gubernatorial ticket. Several political figures have their own ambitions and interests within the capital.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino remains a potential contender in the Nairobi governor's race. However, recent reporting indicates that he intends to use the Mwananchi Party in the 2027 elections.

This could place Babu and Sakaja on separate political platforms. Their rivalry would therefore centre on the City Hall contest rather than necessarily competing for ODM's nomination.

Within ODM, Makadara MP George Aladwa presents a more immediate challenge. Nairobi ODM delegates rejected attempts to secure Sakaja the party's gubernatorial ticket on September 26.

Instead, the delegates endorsed Aladwa and insisted aspirants should compete through the party's nomination process. Their position highlights the resistance Sakaja could encounter if he seeks ODM's ticket.

Joining the party would not automatically secure him its nomination. He would still need to navigate internal competition and convince party delegates.

Is Sakaja planning a strategic move rather than a Ruto fallout?

One notable aspect of Sakaja's emerging political position is the absence of an openly declared dispute with Ruto. He has not publicly announced a breakdown in his relationship with the President.

A possible move to ODM could demonstrate how Kenya's broad-based political arrangement affects traditional party loyalties. Sakaja could seek to maintain national political relationships while pursuing a stronger electoral platform in Nairobi.

His previous relationship with the late Raila Odinga could also influence his political calculations. Sakaja had previously described the former ODM leader as a father figure.

However, his appearance at an ODM rally does not establish that a defection is imminent. His remarks could instead represent an early attempt to gauge public and party acceptance.

The governor faces two separate political questions before the next election. He must assess whether UDA remains suitable for his ambitions and whether ODM would consider giving him its ticket.

For Nairobi voters, the central issue remains whether Sakaja can secure another term at City Hall. His political alliances, party nomination prospects and relationship with national leaders could shape that contest.

Sakaja has opened the door to speculation about leaving UDA, but no formal defection has been announced.