Oil Prices Drop Sharply, but Kenyan Motorists May Not See Relief on November 14

Global oil prices have fallen steeply, raising hopes that pump prices in Kenya will come down. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) will announce new fuel prices on November 14, 2026. Motorists want to know whether the drop will reach petrol, diesel, and kerosene prices. Other import costs could cancel out the savings.

Fuel prices in Nairobi climbed sharply in October. Petrol rose to Ksh226.96 per litre, and diesel reached Ksh227.76. Falling crude prices have raised hopes of a reversal. The shilling has held steady against the US dollar, which helps keep import costs stable.

The Central Bank of Kenya's Weekly Bulletin, published on November 6, showed a sharp fall in Murban crude prices. The benchmark dropped from USD 110.46 per barrel on October 29 to USD 94.04 on November 5. 

That decline of USD 16.42 equals a 14.86 per cent fall in just one week. The central bank linked the drop to developments after the US midterm elections. It also pointed to lower fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East.

A separate outlook from the US Energy Information Administration offers a less rosy view. Its November 10 report says Brent crude averaged USD 124 per barrel in October. That was the highest monthly average since July 2022. 

Brent slipped below USD 100 on November 4. The agency still expects prices to average about USD 100 in November and December. It blames tight oil flows, geopolitical risks, and longer shipping routes for the continuing pressure.

Murban and Brent measure different crude grades, so the two figures cannot be compared directly. Still, they show how quickly oil markets can shift. The difference between falling crude prices and the real cost of importing refined fuel may decide whether Kenyans see cheaper pumps on November 14.