Nairobi May Wait Longer for El Niño Rains, Weather Official Warns

Vehicles Moving on a Busy Highway in a Rainy Day

Parts of Kenya, Nairobi included, may have to wait longer for the El Niño rains. Some areas may miss them altogether. The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority gave the warning in an interview on Spice FM on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.

Richard Muita, Eastern Region Meteorological Services Deputy Director, spoke on the station. He explained that El Niño shapes weather patterns across the globe. However, it does not guarantee rain on its own. 

The World Meteorological Organisation has put the chances of El Niño near 100 per cent. That forecast raised hopes for heavier-than-normal rainfall in Kenya.

Muita said El Niño is only one factor driving rainfall. He stressed that the phenomenon is not rain itself. Public expectations have grown in Nairobi, and many residents now question whether the long rains will arrive as forecast.

El Niño begins in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The Indian Ocean also plays a decisive role, Muita explained. The Indian Ocean Dipole influences rainfall patterns across East Africa. When Indian Ocean temperatures are favourable, Kenya can receive substantial rain.

Muita warned that the two oceans must work together. Strong Pacific warming paired with unfavourable Indian Ocean conditions can produce little rain. 

Temperatures along the East African coast are a key indicator. When they run above normal and match the Pacific pattern, rain often follows. When they do not, the anticipated downpours may fail to materialise.